Unit Root Tests and Structural Breaks: A Survey with Applications

Authors

  • John Glynn Graduate School of Business University of Wollongong
  • Nelson Perera Graduate School of Business University of Wollongong
  • Reetu Verma School of Economics University of Wollongong

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.2065

Keywords:

Unit root, structural breaks, multiple breaks, raíces unitarias, cambios estructurales, cambios múltiples

Abstract

The theme of unit roots in macroeconomic time series have received a great amount of attention in terms of theoretical and applied research over the last three decades. Since the seminal work by Nelson and Plosser (1982), testing for the presence of a unit root in the time series data has become a topic of great concern. This issue gained further momentum with Perron’s 1989 paper which emphasized the importance of structural breaks when testing for unit root processes.

This paper reviews the available literature on unit root tests taking into account possible structural breaks. An important distinction between testing for breaks when the break date is known or exogenous and when the break date is endogenously determined is explained. We also describe tests for both single and multiple breaks. Additionally, the paper provides a survey of the empirical studies and an application in order for readers to be able to grasp the underlying problems that time series with structural breaks are currently facing.

 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Amsler, C and Lee, J. (1995), “An LM test for unit root in the presence of a structural change”, Econometric Theory, 11, pp. 359-368.

Banerjee, A., Lumsdaine, R. L., and Stock, J.H. (1992), “Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend-Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, pp. 271-287.

Ben-David, D and Papell, D.H. (1995), “The Great Wars, the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 36, pp. 453-475.

Ben-David, D., Lumsdaine, R., and Papell, D.H. (2003), “Unit Root, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks”, Empirical Economics, 28(2), pp. 303-319.

Christiano, L.J. (1992), “Searching for a Break in GNP”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, pp. 237-249.

Clemente, J., Montañés, A., and Reyes, M. (1998), “Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean”, Economics Letters, Vol. 59, pp.175-182.

Dickey, D.A and Fuller, W. A. (1979), “Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74(366), pp.427-481.

Dickey, D.A and Fuller, W.A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), pp.1057-1072.

Gregory, A. W and Hansen, B. E. (1996) “Tests for cointegration in models with regime and trend shifts”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 58, pp. 555-560.

Ghatak, A. (1997), “Unit roots and structural breaks: The case of India 1900-1988”, Journal of Applied Statistics, 24:3, pp. 289-300.

Lee, J. and Strazicich, M.C. (2003), “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 63, pp. 1082-1089.

Lee, J. and Strazicich, M.C. (2004), “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Working Paper, Department of Economics, Appalachain State University.

Lumsdaine, R. L and. Papell, D. H. (1997), “Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79 (2), pp. 212-218.

Maddala, G.S. and Kim, I.M. (2003), Unit Root, Cointegration and Structural Change, Cambridge University Press, Fifth Edition, UK.

Nelson, C.R. and Plosser C.I. (1982), “Trends and random walks In Macroeconomic Time Series”, Journal of Monterey Economics, 10, pp.139-162.

Nunes, L., Newbold, P. and Kuan, C. (1997), “Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59, pp.435-448.

Ohara, H.I. (1999), “A unit root test with multiple trend breaks: A theory and application to US and Japanese macroeconomic time series”, The Japanese Economic Review, Vol. 50, pp. 266-290.

Pappel, D.H. and Prodan, R. (2003), “The uncertain unit root in US real GDP: Evidence with restricted and unrestricted structural change”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 36, pp. 423-427.

Perron, P. (1989), “The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, pp.1361-1401.

Perron, P. (1994), “Trend, Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Time Series”, in Roa, B.Bhasakara, ed., Cointegration for Applied Economists, St. Martin’s Press.

Perron, P. (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables, Journal of Econometrics, 80(2), pp.355-385.

Perron, P. (2005), “Dealing with Structural Breaks”, Mimeo forthcoming in the Vol. 1 Handbook of Econometrics: Econometric Theory.

Perron, P. and Vogelsang, T. J. (1992), “Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity”, Journal of Business and

Economic Statistics, 10, pp. 301–320.

Phillips, P. and Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrica 75(2), pp. 335-346.

Raj, B. (1992), “International evidence on persistence in output in the presence of an episodic change”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7, pp. 281-293.

Saikkonen, P. and Lütkepohl, H. (2000) “Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 18, pp. 451-464.

Stulz, R.M. and Wasserfallen, W. (1985),”Macroeconomic Time Series, Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policies,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 22, pp. 9-54.

Strazicich, M.C., Lee J. and Day, E. (2004), “Are countries converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks”, Journal of Macroeconomics”, 26, pp. 131-145.

Wasserfallen, W. (1986), “Non-stationarities in macro-economic time series - further evidence and implications”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 19, pp. 498- 510.

Zivot, E. and Andrews, K. (1992), “Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10 (10), pp. 251–70.

Published

2016-11-04

How to Cite

Glynn, J., Perera, N., & Verma, R. (2016). Unit Root Tests and Structural Breaks: A Survey with Applications. Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, 3, Páginas 63 a 79. https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.2065

Issue

Section

Articles