Factors associated with the entrepreneurship of returned Colombian migrants: a Bayesian approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.5105Keywords:
entrepreneurship, return migration, Bayesian inference, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), Empirical Bayes MethodsAbstract
In this work, a set of characteristics associated with the fact that a returned Colombian migrant becomes an entrepreneur are identified. A set of data obtained from a modified form developed in 2012 (only for that year) of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey, were used in the analyses. The modified form included a set of questions about entrepreneurship to people who had returned to the country after living abroad an amount of time. A comparison was made between the probabilities of entrepreneurship in two regions of the country, Bogotá, the capital and the area with the greatest economic and financial development (n = 204), and the departments of the Colombian Caribbean Coast, an area with less industrial development and greater tourist strength (n = 203). The results were obtained using methods of the Bayesian paradigm of Statistics. Nine informative prior distributions constructed from the observed data (Empirical Bayes Methods) were considered and the Bayes factor was used as a criterion to select the model with the best fit to the data. According to the results, the factors that affect the probability that a returned migrant is an entrepreneur differ between regions and are related to the individual's self-confidence and their ability to prepare for inclusion in the country's productive sector.
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