Empirismo en economía ecológica:una visión desde la teoría de los sistemas complejos
Palabras clave:
Economía ecológica, empirismo, economía neo-clásica ambiental, econometría predictiva, incertidumbre, sistemas complejos, ciencia post-normalResumen
Las economías son sistemas complejos abiertos, lejosdel equilibrio termodinámico, y la economía neo-clásica no parecesiempre la forma más adecuada de describir su comportamiento. Elanálisis econométrico tradicional toma un punto de vista deterministay predictivo, que fomenta la búsqueda de políticas predictivas para“corregir” los problemas ambientales. No obstante, parece que, debidoa las características de los sistemas económicos, un análisis ex-post esmás adecuado en determinados ámbitos, pues describe la aparición delas propiedades emergentes de esos sistemas, y ve a la política comoun mecanismo de dirección social. Con esta información se presentaparte del reciente trabajo empírico publicado en la revista EcologicalEconomics que pienso sigue el enfoque descrito aquí. Además, tam-bién se mencionará un proyecto reciente en que el autor ha estado invo-lucrado pues, de nuevo, supone un ejemplo del punto de vista defendi-do aquí para el empirismo. Finalmente, se alcanzará la conclusión deque no es posible una econometría ecológica de carácter predictivo.Esto, no obstante, no implica que no se deba llevar a cabo análisisempírico. Muy al contrario, éste debe promoverse, pero desde un puntode vista ex-post y estructural
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