World in Transformation Challenges Latin America to Reinvent the Development of Its Productive Forces

Abstract

The global crisis presents a paradoxical scenario: while commercial and productive structures exhibit globalization trends—such as the formation of global value chains and the expansion of digital and financial conglomerates—these coexist with increasing fragmentation of productive spaces and consumption patterns. This contradiction intensifies with climate collapse, which pits two antagonistic models against each other: on one hand, highly pollutive production processes that externalize environmental and labor costs; on the other, a new "corporate ethic" based on the economy of the common good. Nevertheless, even emerging ecological transition models may generate adverse environmental impacts in peripheral economies.

These dynamics fuel growing geoeconomic rivalry, particularly between the United States and China, with active participation from Central Europe. The competition for resources and spheres of influence extends to the periphery, creating both risks and strategic opportunities. The Ukraine war has exacerbated these tensions, acting as a catalyst for profound economic shocks: inflationary acceleration, distortion of relative prices, altered economic agent behavior, and global monetary tightening. While each peripheral economy experiences these effects differently, all reveal heightened structural vulnerabilities.

How then to design a productive forces development policy in this context? The challenge proves particularly complex as peripheral countries face adverse initial conditions: deep social fractures, mounting debt crises, disarticulated productive networks, critical environmental outlooks, and elites reluctant to advance national development projects.

Confronting this landscape, this study examines potential strategic responses through four fundamental axes: a) Requirements for productive forces development policy; b) Viable socioeconomic development models; c) Criteria for effective international integration; d) Guidelines for a foreign policy aligned with these challenges.