'Nobel' de Economía 2018. Análisis coste-beneficio versus principio de sostenibilidad: la economía del cambio climático de Nordhaus
Palabras clave:
análisis coste-beneficio, cambio climático, modelo DICE, Nordhaus, Premio 'Nobel'Resumen
El “Nobel de economía” a Nordhaus supone el reconocimiento de la institución sueca a una determinada economía del cambio climático. Su principal contribución, el modelo DICE, modeliza las interrelaciones entre economía y cambio climático, determinando la senda “óptima” de reducción de emisiones que maximiza el valor actual de la suma de utilidades del consumo presente y futuro. Se aplica una lógica coste-beneficio para definir qué hay que hacer frente al cambio climático, recomendando, como resultado, una actuación muy moderada que limite el calentamiento a 3,5⁰C, en fuerte contraste con las propuestas de organismos como el IPCC. El análisis de Nordhaus incorpora una serie de elecciones en cuando a métodos y parámetros elegidos en base a juicios de valor y supuestos discutibles que condicionan completamente sus resultados y hacen que no sea adecuado denominar sus prescripciones como la “política óptima”, ni como la respuesta de “la economía” al problema del cambio climático. Los aspectos más problemáticos en su planteamiento hacen referencia al tratamiento del futuro, la incertidumbre y a la propia aplicación de la lógica coste-beneficio. En contraste con su propuesta, defendemos que el análisis económico del cambio climático debería tener presente los principios de precaución, sostenibilidad y justicia ambiental.
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