A Methodology to Elaborate Laws of Possibilities in the Retreat of a Client: An Application to the Dress Sector

Authors

  • Mauricio Ortigosa Hernández Facultad de Economía y Negocios Universidad Anáhuac México
  • Anna María Gil Lafuente Departamento de Economía y Organización de Empresas Universidad de Barcelona

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.2343

Keywords:

incertidumbre, números borrosos, subconjunto aleatorio borroso, duración del cliente, distancia de Hamming, método heurístico, uncertainty, fuzzy numbers, fuzzy random subset, customer permanence, Hamming distance, heuristic method

Abstract

The current work tests, in the dress sector in the center of the country, a methodology based in the theory of uncertainty and the fuzzy subsets, in order to build laws of possibilities for the retreat of clients only with the subjective opinion given by experts. The contribution of the present work allows to obtain an alternative path when it is not possible to get the required information by the models identified in the literature based in principles derived of the random laws even from heuristic methods. The results show the utility of fuzzy concepts in a problem where the uncertainty in relation to the permanence of the client is evident and allows to obtain a valuable element (time), when the Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is required to be measured in the field of uncertainty.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abe, M. (2009). "Counting your customers" one by one: A hierarchical Bayes extension to the Pareto/NBD model. Marketing Science, 28(3), 541-553.

Fader, P.S., Hardie, B.G.S. & Lee, K.L. (2005). "Counting your customers" the easy way: An alternative to the Pareto/NBD model. Marketing Science, 24(2), 275-284.

Fader, P.S., Hardie, B.S. & Shang, J. (2010). Customer-Base Analysis in a Discrete-Time Noncontractual Setting. Marketing Science, 29(6), 1086-1108.

Figini, S. (2010). Penalized models to estimate customer survival. Statistical Methods & Applications, 19(1), 141-150.

Gil Aluja, J. (1996). Lances y desventuras del nuevo paradigma de la teoría de la decisión. Proceedings del III Congreso de la Sociedad Internacional para la Gestión y Economía Fuzzy, Buenos Aires.

Gil Aluja, J. (2002). Introducción de la Teoría de la incertidumbre en la gestión de empresas. Vigo: Editorial Milladoiro.

Gil Lafuente, J. (1997). Marketing para el nuevo milenio: Nuevas técnicas para la gestión comercial en la incertidumbre. Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide.

Kaufmann, A. & Gil-Aluja, J. (1987). Técnicas operativas de gestión para el tratamiento de la incertidumbre. Barcelona: Editorial Hispano Europea.

Kaufmann, A. & Gil-Aluja, J. (1990). Las matemáticas del azar y de la incertidumbre: Elementos básicos para su aplicación en economía. Madrid: Centro de Estudios Ramon Areces.

Kaufmann, A. & Gil-Aluja, J. (1992). Técnicas de gestión de empresa: Previsiones, decisiones y estrategias. Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide.

Lu, J. (2003). Modeling customer lifetime value using survival analysis—an application in the telecommunications industry. Proceedings of the 28th Annual SAS Users Group International Conference. Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc, Paper 120-28. Disponible en http://www2.sas.com/proceedings/sugi28/120-28.pdf.

Neslin, S., Gupta, S., Kamakura, W., Lu, J. & Mason, C. (2006). Defection Detection: Measuring and Undestanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models. Journal of Marketing Research, 43(2), 204-211.

Reinartz, W. & Kumar, V. (2000). On the profitability of long-life customers in a noncontractual setting: An empirical investigation and implications for marketing. Journal of Marketing, 64(4), 17-35.

Reinartz, W. & Kumar, V. (2003), The Impact of Customer Relationship Characteristics on Profitable Lifetime Duration. Journal of Marketing, 67(1), 77-99.

Schmittlein, D., Morrison, D. & Colombo, R. (1987). Counting your customers: Who are they and What will they do next? Management Science, 33(1), 1-24.

Schmittlein, D.C. & Peterson, R.A. (1994). Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application. Marketing Science, 13(1), 41-67.

Tamaddoni Jahromi, A., Sepehri, M. M., Teimourpour, B. & Choobdar, S. (2010). Modeling customer churn in a non-contractual setting: the case of telecommunications service providers. Journal of Strategic Marketing, 18(7), 587-598.

Wübben, M. & Von Wangenheim, F. (2006). Predicting Customer Lifetime Duration And Future Purchase Levels: Simple Heuristics vs. Complex Models. En J.L. Johnson & J. Hulland (eds.) AMA Winter Educators' Conference: Marketing Theory and Applications, 17, 83-84.

Published

2016-12-14

How to Cite

Ortigosa Hernández, M., & Gil Lafuente, A. M. (2016). A Methodology to Elaborate Laws of Possibilities in the Retreat of a Client: An Application to the Dress Sector. Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, 22, Páginas 139 a 163. https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.2343

Issue

Section

Articles